Six weeks ago I started a wee maths and statistics project.
Yup I know just how to take the fun out of watch collecting
There was much feeling kicking around the internet that used and grey market (unworn watches simply being flipped) were in a state of flux, with chat that certain watches most notably Rolex Hulk and Batmans were on the way down.
Now you can go onto various sites and monitor individual prices of watches both used and grey market. You can see quite clearly what the numbers are doing for any given sample size that you can find.
However, there is no one-stop shop that can just give you a quick impression of what the overall market is doing. What I felt was needed was something similar to the FTSE 100 or Dow Jones Exchanges.
A sample bucket of watch models that could be monitored globally and as trends changed new models could arrive in and depart and you could perform some analysis on the prices of that bucket of models and convert it all into a simple number that can rise and fall like a stock exchange.
So six weeks ago I started working on the statistics and the data farming from all sorts of global sources, and then let it run alongside what the “feeling” online was to see if the numbers reflected the mood.
Some final tweaking was then needed and some watches that there is simply not a big enough market in were removed while others with larger data sets, representing perhaps more bellwether models were added and the numbers run again.
So here we are, we can report on what the numbers have been doing for the last six weeks, just ahead of Basel and we will continue regular reporting and commentary.
We are calling this the World Watch Index because we like a grandiose and over the top title here at Scottish Watches Towers
An index for Grey Market watches, that is Unworn, New watches that have been sold once buy an AD and are now be resold by the original buyer, better known as “flipping”
A second index will be for Pre Loved Watches that are watches that are not marked as new and unworn but that have genuinely been used albeit some for a very short time, it will however not include vintage models. All watches analysed are still available new.
All watches monitored in these indexes are watches that generally sell for more than retail in either Flipped or Pre Loved condition., we have not yet widened the data set to deal with watches that take a nosedive in value upon walking out of the AD
For example within the watches, we have monitored are the Rolex BLNR and The AP 15400.
We will add and remove models as the market moves and new models come on board.
We started both indexes at 1000 on the 28th of January and have monitored all the pricing, sales and offer prices that the internet and our worldwide watch spy network can provide for us since then.
The indexes may rise or fall and we may be able to report from the background info we are using if a particular model of watch is having more of a bearing on the shifting market than any other.
we would expect, like the stock market a gradual rise in all indexes over time, if for no other reason than inflation.
Hopefully, these indexes will give a real-world answer to what is actually happening in the watch land and may even identify trends that you might use when deciding to stick or twist on a particular purchase depending on if you can see the market rise or fall.
Week 0. Grey Index 1000. Preloved Index 1000
Week 1. Grey Index 1002.6. Preloved Index 989.4
Week 2. Grey Index 1002.4 Preloved Index 1010.74
Week 3 Grey Index 999.2 Preloved Index 1000.1
Week 4 Grey Index 1014.3 Preloved Index 1011.5
Week 5 Grey Index 1032.6 Preloved Index 1013.4
Week 6 Grey Index 1043.0 Preloved Index 1023.7
So thus far what can we deduce.
Well, it certainly does look like 4 or 5 weeks ago the overall market was soft, but that in the run-up to Basel the market continues to rise, it also shows that grey market prices are still advancing faster than used prices, meaning that if you are prepared to wait for the watch you want to enter the used market your value differential is increasing as time goes on
We will do more in-depth analysis as time goes on, this is just a starter for 10.