Corona Virus & What You Need To Know (P.S There Will Still Be Rolex Waitlists)

(Spoiler Alert: No one knows even half of this, yet) 

Among watch enthusiasts, perhaps the most-discussed topics of the last few days have been, ‘What’s up with the Corona Virus? Can I safely travel to Switzerland? What is happening to luxury brands? Will Baselworld 2020 go bye-bye like the Formula One China Grand Prix?

While these are all fine to ask, perhaps a better question is:  How bad is this worldwide viral outbreak? Quick answer: We don’t really know yet. For a number of reasons, the severity of COVID-19 and its effects on people, places, and events in 2020 depends on things we barely know, are waiting to know, or may never (exactly) know.

While your best source of information is probably your family physician, you’re currently reading a watch blog. Maybe ALL you read is watch blogs. Lucky you, I hereby lend my eight years of quality health-care higher education. Facts:

• COVID-19 is thought to have resided only in bats (flying mammals) until late 2019.
• We’re not sure how it crossed over to infect people but it happened in Wuhan, China.
• The Chinese ‘authoritatively’ extended the New Year holiday and restricted internal Chinese travel.
• The United States and some other countries severely restricted travel in & out of China since late January.
• Despite this, the very same COVID-19 has had major outbreaks in Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea, Iran, and northern Italy. In a meeting Monday, it was decided Italy would not close its northern border.
• COVID-19 is a virus, not bacteria; use of antibiotics will not kill it. Antivirals developed for HIV, while hoarded and consumed extensively by Chinese civilians, will not kill it.
• There is currently no vaccine. There is no antiviral drug proven to kill COVID-19 virus, yet (more on this).
• COVID-19 infection causes a range of flu-like symptoms; in severe cases, breathing support is needed.
• The route of transmission is unknown, but could include airborne droplet inhalation or touching intact virus on surfaces. We’re not sure of the incubation period.
• The number of people known infected with COVID-19 who die (overall) is around 3%, compared to the fatality rate from seasonal flu at around 0.1% – so currently COVID-19 looks to be 30x more deadly than Flu.

Opinion: There is no good evidence that the 2019 Chinese Coronavirus outbreak is contained, managed, or even slowing. To the contrary, its rate and speed of outbreak looks to be accelerating. People are traveling to and from the Wuhan region of China for business or to visit family and many have been caught lying about it to customs agents. I feel this is likely to continue. We also don’t know with any precision how many people are actually infected with COVID-19 as accurate tests are new and in short supply. Many people carrying this virus may have yet to experience symptoms, or guess incorrectly that their symptoms were caused by a common cold or seasonal flu.

 

Instead of self-isolating – the most effective way to contain seasonal flu or SARS or MERS or COVID-19 – some of these people are moving about, shopping in crowded areas, traveling by train or by airplane. They’re coughing and sneezing – maybe into a facemask, maybe onto their hand. If the COVID-19 virus can survive on dry surfaces for up to 9 days, as seems likely, then a facemask is only a partial barrier. I believe that like seasonal cold and flu virus outbreaks, the most common way COVID-19 is transmitted is mouth/nose to hand, hand to surface, another person’s hand to that same surface, then to that new person’s mouth, nose, or eyes.

When will it be safe to travel? When new outbreak locations stop proliferating. When the number of newly infected people goes down daily, not goes up daily. When the fatality rate drops from the current 3% range. When there is a widely available effective antiviral. The only one that shows clear results is an investigational (not yet FDA-approved) drug called remdesivir. It was developed by Gilead Sciences to treat related viruses that cause SARS, MERS, and Ebola. Disclosure: I own Gilead stock – not because of remdesivir, but because of their existing antiviral drug patents. Per their shareholder meeting Gilead (pronounced GILL-ee-add) is ready and able to ramp up remdesivir production both in the USA and by way of new agreements, in China; they have no intention of profiting from this outbreak.

If you’ve booked travel to a trade show or just for holiday, my advice is wait to see if your particular flight gets canceled, in which case the airline will refund your purchase. If you’ve not yet booked, get travel insurance. If I was going to guess, this Spring and Summer and possibly all of 2020 you’ll see fewer people in airports, at trade shows, at tourist resorts or theme parks. Possibly some of these places will close if the Coronavirus continues to bloom unabated. For sure there won’t be a vaccine widely available until next winter at the earliest.

 

If you insist on traveling, eating out, going to Disney World – how can you stay safe? Possibly a face mask will help. Your photo with Mickey might look a little odd but who knows, maybe that will be a ‘thing’ this year. Wash your hands – often. (Seriously watch the video there is a proper way to do this)

If you have to put your hand where others also put their snotty, grubby hand, be careful! Doorknobs are not your friend, treat them with disdain. Only grab them with gloved hands or a paper towel – not your bare hand. Break yourself now of the habit of touching your face. Bring alcohol-based hand sanitizer and paper towels in your pockets or bag, but be looking for the next opportunity to wash your hands. If it’s any indication, I’ve worked in hospitals for six years and have taken three sick days – total.

So, what’s going to happen to Rolex steel sports availability? To stock market prices? To Baselworld? For some people these are deep, burning questions. I don’t care. I just don’t want to die from this damned bat virus.